The passenger figures were calculated by the independent firm Gertz Gutsche Rümenapp Stadtentwicklung und Mobilität GbR as part of the standardized evaluation. This is a binding nationwide procedure for assessing the economic viability of local transport projects, which enables an objective assessment according to uniform standards. The procedure is updated every few years to ensure that the assessment is always in line with the latest scientific findings and social values.
Model takes into account current mobility, population development and transfer behavior
The basis for calculating passenger numbers is a transport model that takes into account current mobility, population trends and transfer behavior. Several groups are taken into account:People who currently use the bus and will travel faster on the light rail system in future; people who currently travel by car and will switch to public transport if there is a reliable, congestion-free service and people who will only travel to destinations in the city center as a result of the light rail service.
It is important to note that the predicted total number does not describe how many people travel through from Markgröningen to Ludwigsburg every day. All passengers along the route and on partial sections are counted. In the event of a stop at the western exit, around 6,300 passengers a day are expected on the section of the route with the highest demand, both directions combined.
Actual demand often exceeds forecasts
The calculations were deliberately cautious. This avoids creating a service that fails to meet demand. Experience from comparable projects shows that actual demand often exceeds forecasts. One example of this is the light rail system in Heilbronn, whose expected passenger numbers were significantly exceeded shortly after commissioning.
"The forecasts confirm that the light rail system can play an important role in the region's future mobility services. The increasing demand for public transport and the strain on the road network show that we need new solutions. The light rail offers a reliable and well-connected link that can relieve traffic overall," says light rail manager Michael Ilk.
